Long vs Short Lifecycle Forecasting: "soup is not the same as suits"

By Gray King, CEO Sizeo

As I’ve spent more time in enterprise fashion planning, I’ve realized there’s a nuance many people miss.

Our founder said it perfectly the other day: “Forecasting soup is not forecasting suits.”

A lot of people assume forecasting is the same across every product category. The reality is that long lifecycle and short lifecycle items and their sales behavior are different. 

Long Lifecycle (CPG, Basic)

·      Trends last longer, change slowly

·      Buy enough to meet demand, re-order as needed

·      Reliable signals from history and in-stocks

Short Lifecycle (Perishable, Fashion)

·      Trends move fast, risky to chase (or not chase)

·      Set the floor, then hope it sells through

·      Weak signals due to seasonality, newness, returns, brand dynamics

From my career, two clear examples:

·      Hubs 40oz peanuts (long lifecycle) – steady, predictable (and yes, the chocolate-covered ones are even better).

·      Ed Hardy T-shirts (short lifecycle) – volatile, trend-driven, short window (IYKYK).

This distinction is one of the reasons demand prediction in fashion is so challenging and why we at Sizeo (and those in the know) are so passionate about size and pack optimization. 

How you purchase units in fashion by size and location can have an outsized impact on sell-through, selling price, and markdowns. 

If you are thinking about implementing forecasting or demand planning tools in your fashion business, let's talk about the nuances and why Sizeo might be a good first step in your journey.